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Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) Trade Card™

Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN)
15.17 0.16 (1.07%)
Sector: Retailing
Published by Capital Market Laboratories on 2017-09-24

What does this rating mean?
STOCK RETURNS
3Mo: -16.5%   |   6Mo: +12.5%  |   12Mo: +42.4%

TECHNICAL RATING
10DMA: $14.2  |  50DMA: $15.9  |  200DMA: $15.5
What does this rating mean?

Fundamentals     

➜ TITN generates $0.988 in revenue for every $1 in expense, which is poor and considerably below the sector average of $1.05.

➜ TITN generates $499,000 in revenue per employee which is below the sector average of $1.5 million.

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TITN's revenue (TTM) has dropped for more than five consecutive quarters. One year ago the firm reported $1.24 billion in revenue . For the most recent year it reported $1.18 billion (a -4.9% one-year slide). Two-years ago the firm reported annual revenue of $1.67 billion (a -29.2% two-year drop).

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Technicals   |   Support: 13.49   |   Resistance: 15.21   

Swing Death Cross Alert: The short-term 10 day MA is now below the 50 day MA.

TITN has a two bull (lowest rated) technical rating because while it's trading above its 10-day moving average, its trading below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages and the 10 day MA is below the 50 day MA ("swing death cross"). The fact that the stock is up 1.07% today is the only thing keeping it from having the lowest technical rating possible.


Earnings Estimates
Earnings Date
2017-11-29
EPS
$0.13
Revenue (Mean)
$
Revenue (Median)
$
Last Quarter (Actual)
$269 million


Fundamentals Rating Summary


Metric Current 1yr Ago 2yr Ago Direction
Revenue (TTM US$ Millions)Trending Lower 1,183 1,244 1,671 Trending Lower

Operating Margin (QTR)Falling 0.99 1.01 1.02 Falling

Net Income (TTM US$ Millions)Rising -19 -38 -32 Rising

Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM US$ Millions)Rising -34 -52 -36 Rising

Capital Expenditures (TTM US$ Millions)
Rising
12 8 14
Rising




Stock Returns and Chart


TITN is down -16.5% over the last three months and up +12.5% over the last six months. The stock price is up +42.4% over the last year.

Before we dig into the fundamental trends that drive the rating, let's look at a two-year stock chart with regression channel and 10-day momentum (on the bottom).

Note: You can change time horizons by clicking the or buttons near the bottom of the chart. You can examine a one minute day trading chart by clicking the at the top left corner of the chart.

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Now let's examine the visualizations of the critical financial measures.


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METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION
Revenue (TTM US$ Millions) 1,1831,2441,671Trending Lower

Revenue (TTM) is trending lower meaning that it has decreased for at least five consecutive quarters. While trends occur in many metrics, a down trend in revenue is particularly noteworthy, especially during a long-term bull market. We can see the trend rather clearly in the time series chart, below.

Revenue over the trailing twelve months (TTM) for TITN is falling. For the most recent (annual) period the company reported $1.18 billion from $1.24 billion a year ago, or a -4.9% change. Two years ago revenue (TTM) was $1.67 billion which is a change of $-488 million a (-29.2% move).

What do all these numbers mean?
TITN's fundamental rating was hit hard by these results:
1. The one-year change was negative.
2. The two-year change was negative.
Finally, the five+ consecutive quarters of a down trend in revenue hurt the fundamental (star) rating.

Let's look at Revenue (TTM US$ Millions) in the chart below.


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METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION
Operating Revenues/Operating Expense 0.991.011.02Falling

Operating Revenues/Operating Expense
This ratio (which simply represents how much revenue is generated per one dollar of expense) must be at a minimum above 1.0 in order for a company to turn an operating profit. For the latest quarter TITN showed a ratio of 0.99.

What do all these numbers mean?
One year ago Operating Revenues/Operating Expense was 1.01. In the last year we can see operating margins are decreasing and less than 1.0 for the most recent quarter (below the critical level).

TITN's fundamental rating was affected from the operating margin numbers in the following ways:
1. The current value is below the critical 1.0 level (the firm generates an operating loss).
2. The one-year change was negative (lowers the rating).

Let's look at Operating Revenues/Operating Expense in the chart below with the total assets in the orange line.


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Revenue per Employee


Before we turn to earnings and cash flow analysis, let's look at a different view of revenue on a scatter plot with peers for some perspective.

On the x-axis we equal space the companies and on the y-axis we plot revenue per employee (TTM) in $millions. For this chart, the upper right hand corner is "best" and the lower left hand corner is "worst." The company with the top revenue per employee is marked in green.

TITN 's value is $499,000 million per employee (find it on the y-axis).



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METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION
Net Income (TTM US$ Millions) -19-38-32Rising

Net Income (after tax profit) over the trailing twelve months (TTM) for TITN is rising. For the most recent trailing-twelve-months (TTM) the company reported net income of $-19 (million).

In our next chart we plot Net Income (TTM US$ Millions) in the blue bars and the quarterly results in the gold line. Note the rising bars from a year ago (four quarters ago).


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METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION
Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM US$ Millions) -34-52-36Rising

Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM US$ Millions) is a critical determinant of stock price since market cap is the present value of all future free cash flows. For TITN the metric is falling (it was $-52 million last year). For the most recent trailing-twelve-months the company reported Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM US$ Millions) of $-34 million.

This measure of cash is up $2 million from -36 two-years ago.

For our next chart we plot Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM US$ Millions) in the blue bars through time. Note the falling bars from a year ago (four quarters ago).


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METRIC CURRENT 1YR AGO 2YR AGO DIRECTION
Capital Expenditures (TTM US$ Millions) 12814
Rising

Capital Expenditures (TTM US$ Millions) in the most recent quarter for TITN was $12 million. CapEx is rising (60.51%) from last year's value of $8 million. Further, we can see that CapEx today relative to two-years ago is decreasing (-8.55%) from last year's value of $14 million.

In our final time series chart we plot Capital Expenditures (TTM US$ Millions) in the blue bars. Note the rising bars from one-year ago.


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