Coca-Cola Company

NYSE:KO   2:49PM EDT
49.64
-0.01 (-0.02%)

People also watch


The Intelligence Behind Options Earnings Trading in The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO)



The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) : The Intelligence Behind Options Earnings Trading

Date Published:

LEDE
This is a simple options trade that starts the day after The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) earnings and lasts for the one month to follow, that has been a winner for 3 straight years.

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) Earnings
While the mainstream media likes to focus on the actual earnings move for a stock, that's the distraction when it comes to the option market.

For The Coca-Cola Company, irrespective of whether the earnings move was up or down, if we waited one day after the stock move, and then sold an one-month out of the money put spread, the results were simply staggering.

STORY
Everyone knows that the day of an earnings announcement is a risky event for a stock. This can be explicitly seen in the option market, where the implied volatility (the expected stock move) rises into the earnings event.

We can examine this, objectively, with a custom option back-test. Here is our earnings set-up:



Rules
* Open short put spread one day after earnings
* Close short put spread 29 days later
* Use the 30-day options

RETURNS
If we sold this out-of-the-money put spread in The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) over the last three-years but only held it after earnings we get these results:

Short Put Spread
* Monthly Options
* Back-test length: three-years
* Open 1-day After Earnings
* Close 29-days Later
* Holding Period: 30-Days per Earnings

Winning Trades: 11
Losing Trades: 1
Post-Earnings Short Put Spread Return:  85.8
Annualized Return:  87

We see a 85.8% return, testing this over the last 12 earnings dates in The Coca-Cola Company. That's a total of just 360 days (30 days for each earnings date, over 12 earnings dates).

We can also see that this strategy hasn't been a winner all the time, rather it has won 11 times and lost 1 times, for a 92% win-rate and again, that 85.8% return in less than one-full year of trading.

MORE TO IT THAN MEETS THE EYE
While a short put spread is a strategy that gains profits if the underlying stock "doesn't go down a lot," there is more to this with The Coca-Cola Company.

In many ways, earnings results are just a coin flip -- and we are not interested in flipping coins with option strategies. What we're after with this approach is identifying companies that make their large stock move the day after earnings -- whether that's up or down -- and after that, find a sense of equilibrium in the stock price for the next month. This is what we find in The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) .

We can see that this idea has been a winner more times than it has been a loser -- a 92% win-rate. It's that positive win-rate that has created that large 87% annualized return.

WHAT HAPPENED
Traders that have a plan guess less. This is how people profit from the option market. Take a reasonable idea or hypothesis, test it, and apply lessons learned.

We hope, if nothing else, you have learned about The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) and the intelligence and methodology of option trading and this idea of equilibrium right after earnings.


To see how to do this for any stock and for any strategy with just the click of a few buttons, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video:
Tap Here to See the Tools at Work

Thanks for reading.

Risk Disclosure
You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment.

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.