United Continental Holdings

NYSE:UAL   1:47PM EDT
87.55
-0.48 (-0.55%)

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United Continental Holdings Hits a Bullish Technical Trigger



United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) : The Bullish Technical TTM Squeeze With Options

Date Published:

Disclaimer
The results here are provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation.


LEDE
Even though we can see that United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) stock is up 215% over the last 5 years, in that same time frame, using a technical signal with a very infrequent trigger, has created larger returns of 442%.

This is a technical analysis triggered momentum trade that bets on a bullish move in the underlying stock for a period that starts the day United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) triggers a breakout from the TTM Squeeze signal and lasts until two-days in a row show reversed (bearish) momentum. It has been a winner for the last 5 years.

United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) IDEA: TTM Squeeze Technical Trigger
The idea is simple -- stocks tend to move in tight ranges for the majority of the time, and then they move in bursts for the remaining periods. The breakout from the TTM Squeeze attempts to find these bursts.

Here is a simple graphic, where the gray line is the daily stock price, the blue bars comprise the tight squeeze zone, and then we see the break out into a bearish move. Roughly speaking, this is the pattern that this technical indicator is attempting to identify and back-test. The squeeze period must last at least 6-trading days for it to register as a squeeze.



Rules
* Open the long 80/30 delta call spread on the day the TTM Squeeze has been broken with upside momentum.
* Close the call after that signal has seen a consecutive two-day reversal.
* Use the options closest to 15 days from expiration.
* Never trade earnings -- irrespective of the technical indicator, this trade will close 2-days before a scheduled earnings announcement.

This is a straight down the middle bullish bet -- this trade wins if the stock rises and will lose if the stock does not.

DISCOVERY
We found this back-test results by going to the Trade Machine Pro Scanner, looking at the S&P 500 and then the "Bull Squeeze" scan.



UAL broke out of the squeeze two-trading days ago, saw one down day, but is still live as long as the stock does not dip for two consecutive days. As of this writing, UAL is is trading at $63.12, up + $0.55 or 0.88%.

Here is a 3-month chart of UAL, where the red line is the 50-day simple moving average, and the blue line is the 200-day simple moving average.



RESULTS
Owning the 90/40 delta call spread in United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) over the last five-years but only held it after a TTM Squeeze was triggered we get these results:

UAL: Long 80/30 Delta Call Spread
Signal: TTM Technical Squeeze

% Wins: 79%
Wins: 11 Losses: 3
% Return:  442% 

Tap Here to See the Back-test

The mechanics of the TradeMachine™ are that it uses end of day prices for every back-test entry and exit (every trigger).

We see a 442% back-test return, which is based on 14 trades in United Continental Holdings Inc. A bullish breakout from the TTM Squeeze is a signal based on probabilities, not absolutes, so it won't work all the time.

Looking at Averages
The overall return was 442%; but the trade statistics tell us more with average trade results:
      The average return per trade was 32.1% over two-weeks.
      The average return per winning trade was 49.2% over two-weeks.
      The average return per losing trade was -30.4% over two-weeks.

Technical Details
For the details about the TTM Squeeze, how it works, when it's triggered and what it means, you can read our dossier The details behind the TTM Squeeze Technical Indicator .

WHAT HAPPENED
To see how to test this for any stock we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video:
Tap Here to See the Tools at Work

Risk Disclosure
You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment.

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.

Please note that the executions and other statistics in this article are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity and slippage.