Option Market Alert: Hecla Mining Company Implied Price Swing Hits An Inflection Point




Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) Risk Hits An Inflection Point

Date Published:

No Risk Alert Here: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) risk is neither elevated nor depressed. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is in a holding period with an IV30 of 50.3% versus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 12.51%. You might say that the post it note for Hecla Mining Company would read, "holding pattern." The annual high for Hecla Mining Company IV30 is 63.97%.



To skip ahead and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Hecla Mining Company, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

PREFACE
This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Hecla Mining Company we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to HL and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Materials ETF (XLB), our broad based proxy for HL.





SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
S&P 500 IV30     12.51%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     15.78%
XLB IV30     14.79%

HL HV 30     55.77%
HL Current IV30     50.3%
52 Week Low IV30     34.99%
52 Week High IV30     63.97%


The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit an inflection point relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($3.40, $4.20) within the next 30 calendar days.

HL OPTION MARKET IMPLIED PRICE SWING RISK
The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Hecla Mining Company shows an IV30 of 50.3%, which is an inflection point for the company relative to its past.

The option market for HL has shown an IV30 annual low of 35.0% and an annual high of 64.0%, meaning that HL is at the 53% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

HL
Current IV30    
HL
Low IV30    
HL
High IV30   
50.3% 35.0% 64.0%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market reflects a wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) than it has on on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 55.77%.




We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 elevated relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of less stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
 
Note how similar the forward risk for Hecla Mining Company is priced (50.3%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (55.8%).

Hecla Mining Company Risk Rating
The HL risk rating is at 3, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3 rating are:

The IV30 is above the annual average.
The IV30 is above 50%.
The HV30 is above the 80th percentile.
The stock has moved just -1.6% over the last 3-months which does indicate some depressed risk.