Option Market Alert: Chuy's Holdings Inc Implied Price Swing Hits A Notable High

Chuy's Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CHUY) Risk Hits A Notable High

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Risk Alert: Before we dive into any analysis we simply note that Chuy's Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CHUY) risk is elevated. We'll detail it below -- but that's the lede -- the option market is starting to flash those neon lights that signal "risk is rising" with an IV30 of 47.38% versus the IV30 of the S&P 500 at 14.76%. The annual high for Chuy's Holdings Inc IV30 is 50.88%.

To skip ahead of this risk alert and see if buying or selling options has been a winner in Chuy's Holdings Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.

This is a proprietary risk rating and risk alert system that looks forward for the next month -- or really 30 days to be exact -- and that includes weekends. The system is based on multiple interactions of data points, many of which come directly from the option market for Chuy's Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CHUY) . The creator of this model is Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz.com).

In the "Why This Matters" section at the end of this article on Chuy's Holdings Inc we're going to take a step back and show in great specificity that there is actually a lot less "luck" in successful option trading than many people know. The whole concept of an "option trading expert" is vastly over complicated and we'll talk about how superior returns are earned.

But first, let's turn back to CHUY and the company's risk rating:

We also take a peek at the implied vol for the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), our broad based proxy for CHUY.

S&P 500 IV30     14.76%
Nasdaq 100 IV30     18.92%
XLY IV30     17.04%

CHUY HV 30     24.6%
CHUY Current IV30     47.38%
52 Week Low IV30     23.89%
52 Week High IV30     50.88%

The implied price swing risk as reflected by the option market has hit a notable high relative to the company's past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of ($23.90, $29.70) within the next 30 calendar days.

The IV30® is the implied price swing risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days -- it's forward looking. Chuy's Holdings Inc shows an IV30 of 47.4%, which is a notable high for the company relative to its past.

The option market for CHUY has shown an IV30 annual low of 23.9% and an annual high of 50.9%, meaning that CHUY is at the 87% percentile right now. Here's a table of the data before we dig into the implied price swing risk rating further.

Current IV30    
Low IV30    
High IV30   
47.4% 23.9% 50.9%

The implied stock swing risk from the option market is a substanially wider range in the next 30 calendar days for Chuy's Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CHUY) than it has on average.
Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 24.6%.

We have a situation now where not only is the IV30 substantially elevated relative to the past, but the option market reflects the likelihood of yet more stock movement in the next 30-days than it has in the last 30-days. Let's turn to a chart to see what's going on.
Note how much higher the forward looking stock swing price risk for Chuy's Holdings Inc is priced (47.4%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (24.6%).

Chuy's Holdings Inc Risk Rating
The CHUY risk rating is at 4.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 4.5 rating are:

The IV30 is above the 80th percentile.
The IV30 is above 40%.
The HV30 is below the annual average.
The HV30 is below 30%.
The IV30 is above the HV30.
The stock has moved +9.5% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.