The Remarkable: Short Bursts of Risk Exposure Create Opportunity in Wynn Resorts
The Remarkable: Short Bursts of Risk Exposure Create Opportunity in Wynn Resorts
Date Published: 2018-03-22Disclaimer
The results here are provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation.
Preface
With volatility spiking and market direction becoming tenuous, we can explore option trading opportunities in Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) that do not rely on stock direction.
Over both the most recent bull market and the last bear market from 2007-2008, for stocks with certain tendencies, there has been a shrewd approach to trading pre-earnings volatility with options.
The goal is to find trades that expose risk in short-bursts of time, with out-sized historical gains relative to historical losses and so far, over the last two-years, we have seen exactly that. WYNN has, by far, been the best performer in the NASDAQ 100 with this approach.
This back-test shows a 263% return with 8 wins and no losses over the last two-years in WYNN over each 4-day period before earnings. WYNN earnings are due out in late April, you can set an alert for 4-days before in the body of this article, below, after the back-testresults are shared.
The Trade Before Earnings in Wynn Resorts, Limited
Let's examine the results of getting long a weekly at the money straddle 4-calendar days days before earnings, and then sell out of that position one-day before the actual release earnings.
Here is the setup:
We are testing opening the position 4 calendar days pre-earnings event and then closing the straddle 1 day before earnings. This is not making any earnings bet. This is not making any stock direction bet.
Once we apply that simple rule to our back-test, we run it on an at-the-money straddle:
Returns
If we did this long at-the-money (also called '50-delta') straddle (using the options closest to one-week in expiration) in Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) over the last two-years but only held it before earnings we get these results:
| WYNN Long At-the-Money Straddle |
|||
| % Wins: | 100% | ||
| Wins: 8 | Losses: 0 | ||
| % Return: | 263 | ||
Tap Here to See the Back-test
The mechanics of the TradeMachine™ are that it uses end of day prices for every back-test entry and exit (every trigger).
Track this trade idea. Get alerted for ticker `WYNN` 4 days before earnings
Setting Expectations
While this strategy has an overall return of 263%, the trade details keep us in bounds with expectations:
➡ The average percent return per trade was 35.9% over each four-day period.
Tested Across Bull and Bear Markets
While many times we can identify strategies that work during a bull or a bear market, this strategy, when we tested it empirically, worked during both. Here are the specifics:
Using the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow 30 as our study group, here are the average total returns by stock for the bull market from 2012-2018 (January) and 2007-2009, which includes the bear market, and the wild 2009 -- where the S&P 500 bottomed in March and then ripped higher -- in other words, a highly volatile time in the market.
As a quick reminder, here is the 2007-2009 period for the S&P 500:
| Time Period | Return by Stock |
| 2012-2018 (January) | +40% |
| 2007-2009 | +21% |
Since we are looking at total returns, it turns out those time periods show nearly identical results (2012-2018 was six-years and 2007-2009 was three-years). Yet more impressive, the strategy showed a 57% win rate by stock during the wildly volatile 2007-2009 market.
These results are empirical, which is to say, they are objective. We are not inserting opinion.
WHAT HAPPENED
We don't always have to look at bullish back-tests in a bull market -- sometimes a straight down the middle volatility pattern pops up. This is it -- this is how people profit from the option market -- finding trading opportunities that avoid earnings risk and work equally well during a bull or bear market.
To see how to do this for any stock we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video:
Tap Here to See the Tools at Work
Thanks for reading.
Risk Disclosure
You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment.
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
Please note that the executions and other statistics in this article are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity and slippage.