IBM Stock News - Technical Buy The Dip Bullish Momentum Trade and Trigger With Options in International Business Machines Corporation
International Business Machines Corporation (NASDAQ:IBM) : IBM Stock News - Technical Buy The Dip Bullish Momentum Trade and Trigger With Options
Date Published: 2019-11-04
Disclaimer
The results here are provided for general informational purposes from the CMLviz Trade Machine Stock Option Backtester as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation.Lede
With the market pushing to new all time highs, a naked bullish bet could be a stretch, but, for the trader looking for that opportunity in a stock that has been in technical failure but is now coming out of it, we have a possible trigger today.International Business Machine (NYSE:IBM) is in the verge of qualifying for a 'Buy the Dip' trigger on 11-4-2019 as of 9:10am PT. If the stock holds the 200-day simple moving average through the close, that would be a trigger.
Find tomorrow's option trade triggers today. For that matter, find today's option triggers today. Tap here to finally find the trading outcomes you've been looking for.
Preface
"Buying the dip" (BTFD) only works if a stock in a down trend actually reverses to a rally. Otherwise the strategy has a different name -- "buying a loser."We focused our testing specifically on the trigger that identifies a stock in a down channel and when the selling pressure has eased and the stock may be ready for a bounce. In other words, we focused less on a simplistic mantra of "buy the dip," and more on the empirical view of "when the dip might reverse."
After rigorous testing over multiple time periods and over tens of thousands of back-tests, today we demonstrate the technical conditions that have provided a strong short-term bullish momentum trigger for International Business Machines Corporation (NASDAQ:IBM) after an abrupt stock decline as well as, broadly speaking, the Nasdaq 100 index constituents over the five year period from 2014-2019.
Logic
It doesn't matter if IBM is in a downtrend right now. What matters is what has happened historically when that time comes, because it will come again.Buy the Dip Trigger: The Option Trade with Technical Analysis and Moving Averages in International Business Machines Corporation (NASDAQ:IBM) .
We will examine the outcome of going long an out-of-the-money (strike price is set to the 40 delta) call option, in options that are the closest to 30-days from expiration (using calendar days). But we follow three rules:* Never Trade Earnings
Let's not worry about earnings. Here it is, first, we enter the long call.
Use a technical trigger to start the trade, if and only if these specific items are met.
Trigger is here: [Trade Machine members only]
To put a picture to the words, here is an example for Apple from February of 2018, below, where the stock was in a down trend, then it crossed above the two trigger requirements, and a stock rally ensued.
You can set an alert in Trade Machine®, which will track all of these moving parts for you. Let Trade Machine do the work for you -- there's no need to stare at the screen.
* Finally, we set a very specific type of limit:
* Use a 50% limit and a 50% stop.
At the end of each day, the back-tester checks to see if the 30-day long call is either up or down 50%. If it is, it closes the position.
Buy the Dip: 5-year Stock Option Backtester Results in International Business Machines Corporation
Here are the results of opening a 30-day call option, using the 40 delta as the strike price, over the last five-years once this "buy the dip" trigger has fired:
| IBM: Long 40 Delta Call | |||
| % Wins: | 86% | ||
| Wins: 6 | Losses: 1 | ||
| % Return: | 216.8% | ||
Tap Here to See the Back-test
We're now looking at 216.8% returns, on 6 winning trades and 1 losing trades.
➡ The average percent return over the last year per trade was 48.14%.
RESULTS
Here are the results for the 30-day long call over the last three-years in International Business Machines Corporation:| IBM: Long 40 Delta Call | |||
| % Wins: | 100% | ||
| Wins: 4 | Losses: 0 | ||
| % Return: | 239.4% | ||
Tap Here to See the Back-test
The mechanics of the TradeMachine® are that it uses end of day prices for every back-test entry and exit (every trigger).
Setting Expectations
While this strategy had an overall return of 239.4%, the trade details keep us in bounds with expectations:➡ The average percent return per trade was 63.98% for each 30-day period.
Checking the Moving Average
You can check to see the values of all the moving averages discussed above with real-time daily prices, including live after hours prices, for IBM by viewing the Pivot Points tab on www.CMLviz.com.Rigor to the Option Backtester and Backtesting
We compared this technical analysis trigger on the constituents of the Nasdaq 100 versus the results from the baseline. The baseline is simply owning calls and rolling them every 30-days with the same stop and limit as introduced above (50%). Here's what we found:* Over the one-year period ending June 2019, the average trade return was 23% per 30-day period using the "buy the dip" technical trigger compared to just 6% using rolling calls with no technical structure.
* Over the 2-years ending June 2019, the average trade return was 24% per 30-day period using the "buy the dip" technical trigger compared to just 5% using rolling calls with no technical structure.
* Over the 3-years ending June 2019, the average trade return was 16% per 30-day period using the "buy the dip" technical trigger compared to just 7% for the baseline.
Back-testing the "Buy the Dip" Trigger: More Time Periods in International Business Machines Corporation
Now we can look at just the last year as well:
| IBM: Long 40 Delta Call | |||
| % Wins: | 100% | ||
| Wins: 2 | Losses: 0 | ||
| % Return: | 159.8% | ||
Tap Here to See the Back-test
We're now looking at 159.8% returns, on 2 winning trades and 0 losing trades.
➡ The average percent return over the last year per trade was 72.18%.
Next Steps
Find tomorrow's option trades triggers today. For that matter, find today's option triggers today. Tap here to finally find the trading outcomes you've been looking for.Risk Disclosure
Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment.
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
Please note that the executions and other statistics in this article are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity and slippage.
You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.