Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) : Custom Pre-earnings Bullish Trigger
Date Published: 2019-07-25
DisclaimerThe results here are provided for general informational purposes from the CMLviz Trade Machine Stock Option Backtester as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation.
LedeToday we use, for the third time, a new and, in some ways, improved version of a pre-earnings momentum strategy. This goes beyond just naked long a call, and gives the opportunity for two shots at momentum with one trade.
PrefaceThis custom strategy has shown higher win rates per stock across the constituents of the NASDAQ 100 over the last 10-, 5-, 3-, 2-, and 1-year than the straight down the middle bullish momentum call. Let's take a look at the pattern in Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) .
Further, if this initial custom strategy fails due to lack of bullish momentum in the stock, it has a second chance built in without making another trade -- let the short-term leg expire, and keep holding the longer dated leg. Let's see it in action.
At a GlanceThis trade triggered on August 2nd 2018:
We see a call spread open for $6.68 on 8-2-2018, and close at $9.40 on 8-10-2019. Now, let's see the rigorous set-up and technical requirements. It does look like this may trigger in a matter of days as Nvidia has earnings due out on 8-15-2019, and 14-days before then would be 8-1-2019.
Trade Machine members, now is the time to check other remarkable patterns with this strategy in companies like: ADSK, AMD, MU, XLNX, COST, FB, PYPL, LRCX, MSFT, SNPS, VRTX, VRSK, WYNN, YELP, WMT, PANW, CRM.
The Custom Bullish Pre-earnings Trigger in Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)We will examine the outcome of going long an at-the-money (strike price is set to the 50 delta) call option that has 14-days to expiry, and short an out-of-the-money (strike price set to the 30 delta) call option with 7-days to expiry. But we do all this starting 14-days before-earnings with the additional following rules:
* Custom Earnings Timing
This call time spread opens 14 calendar days before earnings:
* Use a technical trigger to start the trade, if and only if these specific items are met.
* The stock price is above the 200-day simple moving average -- this is different than the prior set-ups which used the 50-day moving average.
Here it is in an image from Trade Machine -- only focus on the settings where the filter is turned to "on.":
You can set an alert in Trade Machine®, which will track all of these moving parts for you, and message you when it triggers. In fact, you can do this with a portfolio of stocks for a portfolio of bearish and bearish triggers. Let Trade Machine do the work for you -- there's no need to stare at the screen.
* Finally, here is how the custom strategy looks in Trade Machine:
Again, the set-up is opening the at the money call option that is closest to 14-days to expiry (but expires after the earnings date) and selling the out of the money call option that is closest to 7-days to expiry (but expires before the earnings date).
This entire trade closes after the 7-day options expire as it has been backtested. Here is the link to the custom strategy only available to Trade Machine members.
OPTION BACKTESTER RESULTS - TECHNICAL ANALYSISHere are the results over the last five-years in Nvidia Corporation:
The mechanics of the TradeMachine® are that it uses end of day prices for every back-test entry and exit (every trigger).
This entire trade closes after the 7-day options expire as it has been backtested. But, there is an opportunity, if the trade fails, to hold the longer dated calls right up to the day of earnings and sell it right before, for those that want to take a second swing at the bullish pattern.
Checking the Moving AveragesYou can check to see the values of all the moving averages discussed above with real-time daily prices, including live after hours prices, for NVDA by viewing the Pivot Points tab on www.CMLviz.com.
Back-testing Technical Analysis More Time Periods in Nvidia Corporation
Results from the three-years are provided below as well:
See how this calendar call spread compares to just the naked long call over the last 3-years:
We can explicitly see the higher win rate with similar total returns.
WHAT HAPPENEDThis is how people profit from the option market, its empirical testing, not luck. Now it's your turn.
Tap here to learn about becoming a Trade Machine.
Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment.
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
Please note that the executions and other statistics in this article are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity and slippage.
You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.