Shopify Inc (NYSE:SHOP) Nears Patterned Buy Zone Pre-earnings
Shopify Nears Patterned Buy Zone Pre-earnings
Date Published: 2018-04-07Disclaimer
The results here are provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation.
PREFACE
Shopify has been a tech gem which has also caught the attention of short seller Andrew left. But the stock has had a gorgeous pattern in the 3-weeks before earnings that has come into play, yet again.
According to our earnings date provider, Wall Street Horizon, Shopify only has an earnings date estimate of 5-3-2018, so we don't yet have that confirmed pole in the ground to point to. But, in any case, we're close and awaiting a confirmation. Here's why it matters.
LOGIC
The logic behind the option trading backtest is easy to understand -- in a bull market there can be a stock rise ahead of earnings on optimism, or upward momentum, that sets in before an earnings date.
That is, totally irrespective of the reality that follows -- that is, independent of whether the stocks have a history of actually rising after earnings. There has been a way to profit from this pattern without taking any formal earnings risk in Shopify Inc.
Here is a two-year stock chart for SHOP -- we can see there has been a sell-off from the highs, which may make some feel more comfortable that the momentum isn't at its peak.
The Bullish Option Trade Before Earnings in Shopify
We will examine the outcome of getting long a monthly at the money call option in Shopify 21-days before earnings (using calendar days) and selling the call before the earnings announcement but on that day.
Here's the set-up in great clarity; again, note that the trade closes before earnings, so this trade does not make a bet on the earnings result.
In English, at the close of each trading day we check to see if the long option is either up 50% or down 75% relative to the open price. If it was, the trade was closed.
RESULTS
Here are the results over the last five-quarters in Shopify:
The mechanics of the TradeMachine™ are that it uses end of day prices for every back-test entry and exit (every trigger).
Track this trade idea. Get alerted for ticker `SHOP` 21 days before earnings
We see a 577% return, testing this over the last 5 earnings dates in Shopify Inc.
The trade will lose sometimes, but over the most recent trading history, this momentum and optimism options trade has won ahead of earnings.
Setting Expectations
While this strategy had an overall return of 577%, the trade details keep us in bounds with expectations:
➡ The average percent return per trade was 76.5% over each 21-day period.
➡ The average percent return per winning trade was 103%.
➡ The average percent return per losing trade was -29.1%.
Is This Just Because Of a Bull Market?
It's a fair question to ask if these returns are simply a reflection of a bull market rather than a successful strategy. It turns out that this phenomenon of pre-earnings optimism also worked very well during 2007-2008, when the S&P 500 collapsed into the "Great Recession."
The average return for this strategy, by stock, using the Nasdaq 100 and Dow 30 as the study group, saw a 45.3% return over those 2-years. And, of course, these are just 8 trades per stock, each lasting 7 days.
WHAT HAPPENED
We are after answers that are empirical, objective, and explicit in order to find repeatable strategies and patterns that produce successful trades over and over again. Learn more, below:
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Risk Disclosure
You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment.
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
Please note that the executions and other statistics in this article are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity and slippage.