Shopify Earnings: What Will Move the Market
Shopify Earnings: What Will Move the Market
Disclaimer
The results here are provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation.LEDE
Shopify has earnings due out on 4-30-2019 before the market opens. The stock has seen a 73% rise over the last year and nearly a 40% rise in the last 3-months to an all-time high. That means expectations are built in, now, for a beat and raise, and the way the market has treated other high flying software companies, it better be a sizeable beat and raise, and it better hit revenue and EPS -- neither metric can be left behind.The e-commerce thematic still has a secular tailwind, but competitors are circling, as one would expect given the success that Shopify has enjoyed.
- What could go wrong: Watch for any discussion of disrupted growth due to Square or any mention of Microsoft's semi-official new e-commerce platform.
- What could go right: Look for Subscription Solutions revenue, Merchant Solutions revenue, Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), and the amount of GMV processed through Shopify Payments. All of these pieces are growing at absurd rates, are expected to slow due to scale, but if they show continued strength generally, yes, Shopify can go higher.
Further, if the Shopify efforts to expand sales through an actual brick and mortar presence continues to work - it is very easy to see that expansion continue for a long, long time.
In the end, Shopify will have to prove yet again that it has outgrown the simplistic view of its company as "that place you build your e-commerce website," to the all encompassing ecosystem that encircles pay, credit/capital, e-commerce, user management and so much more. As of now, Shopify is the undisputed leader. In order for it to climb yet higher, it must maintain that undisputed lead -- the secular tailwind of e-commerce in general is enough to keep this high flier going, if that lead is held.
* If Shopify reports an EPS number above $0.02 , that would be ahead of even the highest estimates.
* If Shopify guides EPS above $ 0.14 , that would be ahead of even the highest estimates.
SEEING THE FUTURE
It's understanding technology that gets us an edge on finding the gems like Shopify that can turn into the 'next Apple,' or 'next Amazon,' where we must get ahead of the curve. This is what CML Pro does.
Each company in our 'Top Picks' has been selected as a future crown jewel of technology. Market correction or not, recession or not, the growth in these areas is a near certainty. We are Capital Market Laboratories. Our research sits next to Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and every other multi billion dollar institution as a member of the famed Thomson Reuters First Call. But while those people pay upwards of $2,000 a month on their live terminals, we are the anti-institution and are breaking the information asymmetry.
The precious few thematic top picks, research dossiers, one-on-one CEO interviews, and alerts are available for a limited time for $29/mo. Join Us: Discover the undiscovered companies that will power technology's future.
As always, control risk, size appropriately and use your own judgment, aside from anyone else's subjective views, including my own.
Thanks for reading, friends.
The author is long shares of Shopify at the time of this writing.
Legal
The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. Capital Market Laboratories ("The Company") does not engage in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.
The Company specifically disclaims any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if we have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.
The Company make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that The Company endorses, sponsors, promotes or is affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.
Shopify - By the Numbers
There is an expectation set by Wall Street -- and there are numbers at the top tier of that expectation as well. Guidance, at times, moves the market more than the actual quarter being reported -- so watch those numbers as well.Current Quarter Analyst Estimates
| Revenue | $ 309.89 million |
| Adjusted EPS | $ -0.05 |
What Constitutes a "Large Beat" for the Quarter
* If Shopify reports a revenue number above $320 million, that would be ahead of even the highest estimates.* If Shopify reports an EPS number above $0.02 , that would be ahead of even the highest estimates.
Next Quarter Analyst Estimates (Guidance)
| Revenue | $ 341.8 million |
| EPS | $ 0.04 |
What Constitutes a "Large Beat" in Guidance
* If Shopify guides revenue above $ 356.70 million , that would be ahead of even the highest estimates.* If Shopify guides EPS above $ 0.14 , that would be ahead of even the highest estimates.
SEEING THE FUTURE
It's understanding technology that gets us an edge on finding the gems like Shopify that can turn into the 'next Apple,' or 'next Amazon,' where we must get ahead of the curve. This is what CML Pro does.
Each company in our 'Top Picks' has been selected as a future crown jewel of technology. Market correction or not, recession or not, the growth in these areas is a near certainty. We are Capital Market Laboratories. Our research sits next to Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and every other multi billion dollar institution as a member of the famed Thomson Reuters First Call. But while those people pay upwards of $2,000 a month on their live terminals, we are the anti-institution and are breaking the information asymmetry.
The precious few thematic top picks, research dossiers, one-on-one CEO interviews, and alerts are available for a limited time for $29/mo. Join Us: Discover the undiscovered companies that will power technology's future.
As always, control risk, size appropriately and use your own judgment, aside from anyone else's subjective views, including my own.
Thanks for reading, friends.
The author is long shares of Shopify at the time of this writing.
Legal
The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. Capital Market Laboratories ("The Company") does not engage in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.
The Company specifically disclaims any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if we have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.
The Company make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that The Company endorses, sponsors, promotes or is affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.